Article From Newsletter
County will survive a final touchdown
Economically, Space Coast better off than when Apollo program ended
BY JOHN McCARTHY • FLORIDA TODAY • January 10, 2010
NASA has sent men to the moon, robots to Mars and rockets beyond the frontier of our solar system. Now it is set to do something it has only done once before in its 52 years: Wind down a human space program.
The final space shuttle launch, which will come later this year or early 2011, will mark the end of a program that has encompassed more than half of NASA's history and carried more men and women into space than all other spacecraft combined.
And it will be the end of what has been one of Brevard County's most potent economic engines for three decades.
Brevard has been there before.
Following the last Apollo moon mission in 1972, unemployment soared to nearly 15 percent, home prices plunged, foreclosures rose and some 10,000 people -- and their families -- abandoned the county in search of work.
The good news: The economic hit from the end of the shuttle won't be anywhere near as bad as the end of Apollo.
The bad news: The local economy already is in terrible shape even before the coming layoffs.
Among the possible fallouts from the end of the shuttle program:
Local unemployment in the range of 15 percent or more.
Foreclosures continuing at record levels -- nearly 10,000 last year -- for the next several years.
The county's population shrinking as thousands of space workers leave to find jobs. That would mean fewer customers for local
businesses, especially in the central and north parts of the county.
Secondary repercussions including fewer public school students, a drop in charitable giving and lower tax rolls leading to cuts in public services.
Exacerbating the situation is uncertainty about what will replace the shuttle and when. President Barack Obama is considering the final report of a panel convened to review the shuttle-replacement program and offer alternatives.
Under the current post-shuttle scenario, as many as 7,000 space workers here would be left without a job with little prospects of being called back to work for years. Brevard Workforce says another 14,000 workers, such as restaurant
servers or retail clerks, could be indirectly affected.
Given the current nationwide recession, there is no chance that private sector growth can make up for the coming cutbacks at the Kennedy Space Center, said Florida Tech economist Michael Slotkin.
"Unless there is increased government spending. . . . I don't know how we are going to avoid the downside," he said.
The breakdown
About 11,000 men and women in Brevard County work directly on or in support of the shuttle program.
Of those, about 2,000 are NASA civil servants who are not expected to lose their jobs.
The other 9,000 are employees of the private contractors who do most of the work preparing the shuttle and space station components for flight, as well as handling day-to-day operations at the space center.
They range from administrative assistants to skilled technicians to engineers and scientists, and earn an average of $65,000. Their average age is 49.
By October, 2,100 of those likely will be out of work, according to Brevard Workforce, the quasi-governmental agency that manages unemployment and job training issues in the county. Those early layoffs will come in waves as final payload- and orbiter-processing jobs are finished.
Another 4,000-plus will see their jobs evaporate between October and March 2011, following the final shuttle launch, the agency says.
Those numbers pale in comparison to the post-Apollo job losses.
At its peak in 1969, more than 46,000 people worked at KSC and on the Air Force's space-launch facilities across the river. That represented 47 percent of all jobs in the county. By 1974, that number dropped to just over 23,000.
Brevard's unemployment rate soared from a low of 1.9 percent in 1966 to a peak of 14.7 percent in January 1975. That number would have been even higher if about 10,000 workers hadn't left the county to find work elsewhere.
Not as bad as Apollo
The end of the shuttle program won't have near that type of impact.
First of all, 7,000 workers represent only 2.6 percent of the current countywide workforce. Even the absolute worst prediction of 21,000 direct and indirect job losses would account for less that 8 percent of the workforce.
Many of the people who will lose their jobs likely would have left them anyway in coming years. About a third of the shuttle workforce is eligible for
retirement, according to most estimates.
About 3 percent of the KSC workforce was eligible for retirement in 1970, when 60 percent of NASA's workforce was younger than 45.
"This is clearly not going to be an Apollo-like situation but that doesn't mean that we don't have to prepare for it with some intensity," said Frank DiBello, president of Space Florida, the state agency charged with promoting and expanding Florida's aerospace industry.
DiBello is optimistic that NASA, the Department of Defense and the White House will try to divert enough projects to KSC to retain at least half of the current space workforce for future space programs.
"They are not going to want to lose 7,000 critical space workers for an industry so vital to our national well-being," he said.
Still any job losses add to a local unemployment rate already at 11.9 percent.
That number would be even higher save for the fact that some 9,000 unemployed construction workers have left the county over the past two years, according to Franck
Kaiser, CEO of the Home Builders and Contractors Association of Brevard. He estimates that 10,000 construction jobs -- paying an average of $65,000 -- have been lost on the Space Coast.
Housing issues
Clearly the housing market is already in worse shape than in the post-Apollo days.
While exact numbers aren't available from the early 1970s, newspaper reports from the time indicate that thousands of laid-off space workers simply walked away from homes they could no longer afford.
One article said that Brevard accounted for 60 percent of all the homes repossessed in the 21-county South Florida district of the Federal Housing Administration. At one time, the FHA alone held title to more than 3,000 homes in the county and had sold hundreds or thousands of other homes it had repossessed here.
Apartment vacancy rates soared, up by as much as 75 percent in Cocoa Beach, according to reports from the time.
In contrast, Brevard was on pace to see nearly 10,000 foreclosure suits filed in 2009 by the time the numbers are tallied. That comes on top of more than 9,000 foreclosures in 2008.
"Even if our total unemployment does not reach post-Apollo numbers our foreclosures will exceed that era," said Clerk of Courts Scott Ellis, whose office handles foreclosures.
"I think not just in raw numbers, but as a percentage of private housing units foreclosed. . . . The impending shuttle layoffs simply deepen an already deep black hole."
Palm Bay has been hit the worst in the current foreclosure crisis.
Any foreclosures caused by the space layoffs are much more likely to happen in central and northern Brevard.
United Space Alliance, with 5,500 Florida-based workers, is the prime shuttle contractor. The company says about half its Florida workforce lives in Central Brevard communities such as Merritt Island, Port St. John and Cocoa Beach, while about another 28 percent live in the north part of the county.
Far-reaching effect
It is not only space workers who will be affected by the end of the shuttle program.
So, too, will thousands of other workers dependent on
money spent by those shuttle workers, who collectively earn about $600 million a year.
"In the northern part of the county, there is going to be severe hardships," predicted Florida Tech's Slotkin.
True or not, one story circulating through the
business community sums up concerns about the post-shuttle economy. A doctor in Titusville recently decided against hiring a replacement when his receptionist left. His reasoning? "I'm going to lose all my patients anyway when the shuttle program ends," was his supposed answer.
"It is on everybody's mind and it can't help but be what is on everybody's mind," said Titusville Area Chamber of Commerce President Marcia Gaedcke.
But it is not just the restaurants that serve lunch to space workers nor the auto shops that repair their cars that will feel the pinch.
About a quarter of the $6.6 million United Way of Brevard raised last year came from the aerospace industry, according to Susan McGrath, vice president of resource development for the group.
"We are extremely concerned because we may lose revenue, but also the need in our community will rise," McGrath said.
And if parents of school-age children have to leave the county to find work, that would mean fewer students. That could lead to the closing of some schools.
Nobody expects the school situation to be anywhere near as bad as in the 1970s when the school district lost 1/3 of its students. But planning ahead is difficult given the uncertainty about the future of manned space flight.
Under the current scenario, the district estimates it could lose as many as 2,200 students, or about 3 percent of current enrollment. School officials, though, said it is hard to come up with concrete numbers given the uncertainties with the future of manned space flights
"It is kind of fuzzy right now," said Judy Preston, associate superintendent for
financial services.
Any additional slowdown in the economy also will mean less revenue for local governments, which in turn could mean cutbacks in services.
"Any way you look at any of those numbers, Brevard is going to be challenged," said Leigh Holt, government relations manager for Brevard County.
Contact McCarthy at 752-5018 or
jmccarthy@floridatoday.com
Clearly the housing market is already in worse shape than in the post-Apollo days.
While exact numbers aren't available from the early 1970s, newspaper reports from the time indicate that thousands of laid-off space workers simply walked away from homes they could no longer afford.
One article said that Brevard accounted for 60 percent of all the homes repossessed in the 21-county South Florida district of the Federal Housing Administration. At one time, the FHA alone held title to more than 3,000 homes in the county and had sold hundreds or thousands of other homes it had repossessed here.
Apartment vacancy rates soared, up by as much as 75 percent in Cocoa Beach, according to reports from the time.
In contrast, Brevard was on pace to see nearly 10,000 foreclosure suits filed in 2009 by the time the numbers are tallied. That comes on top of more than 9,000 foreclosures in 2008.
"Even if our total unemployment does not reach post-Apollo numbers our foreclosures will exceed that era," said Clerk of Courts Scott Ellis, whose office handles foreclosures.
"I think not just in raw numbers, but as a percentage of private housing units foreclosed. . . . The impending shuttle layoffs simply deepen an already deep black hole."
Palm Bay has been hit the worst in the current foreclosure crisis.
Any foreclosures caused by the space layoffs are much more likely to happen in central and northern Brevard.
United Space Alliance, with 5,500 Florida-based workers, is the prime shuttle contractor. The company says about half its Florida workforce lives in Central Brevard communities such as Merritt Island, Port St. John and Cocoa Beach, while about another 28 percent live in the north part of the county.
Far-reaching effect
It is not only space workers who will be affected by the end of the shuttle program.
So, too, will thousands of other workers dependent on
money spent by those shuttle workers, who collectively earn about $600 million a year.
"In the northern part of the county, there is going to be severe hardships," predicted Florida Tech's Slotkin.
True or not, one story circulating through the
business community sums up concerns about the post-shuttle economy. A doctor in Titusville recently decided against hiring a replacement when his receptionist left. His reasoning? "I'm going to lose all my patients anyway when the shuttle program ends," was his supposed answer.
"It is on everybody's mind and it can't help but be what is on everybody's mind," said Titusville Area Chamber of Commerce President Marcia Gaedcke.
But it is not just the restaurants that serve lunch to space workers nor the auto shops that repair their cars that will feel the pinch.
About a quarter of the $6.6 million United Way of Brevard raised last year came from the aerospace industry, according to Susan McGrath, vice president of resource development for the group.
"We are extremely concerned because we may lose revenue, but also the need in our community will rise," McGrath said.
And if parents of school-age children have to leave the county to find work, that would mean fewer students. That could lead to the closing of some schools.
Nobody expects the school situation to be anywhere near as bad as in the 1970s when the school district lost 1/3 of its students. But planning ahead is difficult given the uncertainty about the future of manned space flight.
Under the current scenario, the district estimates it could lose as many as 2,200 students, or about 3 percent of current enrollment. School officials, though, said it is hard to come up with concrete numbers given the uncertainties with the future of manned space flights
"It is kind of fuzzy right now," said Judy Preston, associate superintendent for
financial services.
Any additional slowdown in the economy also will mean less revenue for local governments, which in turn could mean cutbacks in services.
"Any way you look at any of those numbers, Brevard is going to be challenged," said Leigh Holt, government relations manager for Brevard County.
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